Institutional Barriers and Alternative Paradigms on Population:  The Case of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Contrasting Paradigms

Plateau vs. Peak

The Population Plateau

The Population Peak

What is a Paradigm

Cornucopian Paradigm

Ecological Paradigm

Discovering Absurdity

Outline of Presentation

Chapter 1:  I Study These Plants

Travel for Science

Along the Way

Chapter 2: Climate Change

I Must Do Something

People in the Way?

Chapter 3: What I Do

Global Change Research

Where the IPCC Fits

Chapter 4—This Presentation

“The Black-Box-Expert-Received Wisdom Model of Science/Society”

Primer on Population Ecology

Building a Critter

Population: Addition and Subtraction

Building a Population

Exponential Growth

Density Limits

Overshoot by Feedback Lag

Overshoot by Fluctuating Carrying Capacity

Overshoot by Ecological Release

Overshoot by Resource Drawdown

Long-term/Short-term K

Pollution

The Case of the IPCC

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios—Our Dirty/Rosy Future

We Are Rich and There’re a Lot of Us

Neoclassical Economics and Sustainability

How More Efficient?

Are We Reaching Resource Limits?

Do These Resources Matter?

Food and Energy

Food Trends

Isn’t Climate Change a Problem?

IPCC Food Projections

Proximate Explanation of Absurdity

Ultimate Explanation of Absurdity

Sounds Great!  But….

Assumptions & Political Taboos

Promoting Overshoot

An Analogy

The Overshoot System

What Effect on Climate Models?

A GUMBO Output:  Biophysical

A GUMBO Output:  Population

Where from Here?